Vietnam is under pressure from China and some Southeast Asian neighbors to temper the war of words and pursue a negotiated diplomatic solution. Vietnamese Communist Party leaders are also wary of planting the seed for an Indochinese Arab Spring — state-owned media called the latest rally a “ridiculous farce” and accused anti-state forces of whipping up “national hatred” to cause public disorder. Indeed, there is some evidence that critics see the current dispute as an opportunity to challenge the party.
Although Vietnam has ample experience suppressing public protests, it has wavered throughout the summer and appears undecided on how to deal with the current impasse.
Arresting anti-China protesters undermines the government’s longstanding claim that it is stoutly defending the country against Chinese aggression, and without nationalist credentials, the Communist Party’s legitimacy has perilously little on which to stand.
In addition, quashing the rallies invites criticism from international partners whose support Vietnam needs to negotiate a favorable settlement in the South China Sea. Most important among these is the United States, which has already voiced public concern about the latest crackdowns.
Officials in Hanoi likely regret allowing the protests to begin in June. With each week, it appears increasingly difficult to put underlying public frustrations back in a bottle.